This scenario explorer includes three different sustainable development pathways (SDPs), as well as two additional scenarios for comparison. For a detailed description of the scenarios, please see the references on this page.

The Economy-driven Innovation scenario (SDP_EI-1p5C) relies on technology, markets and innovation as main drivers of transformation. It features a high-growth economic outlook and a supply-side-focused transformation based on price signals and well-regulated markets. Climate policy is consistent with limiting warming to below 1.5°C at the end of the century.

The Resilient Communities scenario (SDP_RC-1p5C) embraces sufficiency and wellbeing as central values. It pursues an equitable sharing of resources as part of an ambitious demand-side driven transformation and a post-growth economic outlook, especially in the Global North. Climate policy is consistent with limiting warming to below 1.5°C at the end of the century.

The Managing the Global Commons scenario (SDP_MC-1p5C) relies on high-efficiency provisioning systems both on the supply and demand side, enabled by strong global and national institutions. Its economic outlook features moderate economic growth in the Global North and high economic growth in the Global South. Climate policy is consistent with limiting warming to below 1.5°C at the end of the century.

The trends-continued reference scenario (SSP2-NPi / SSP2-Ref in Soergel et al.) includes only current climate policies and no targeted SD policies. Socio-economic development is based on the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2.

The climate-policy-only scenario (SSP2-1p5C) is consistent with limiting warming to below 1.5°C at the end of the century, but includes no targeted SD policies. Socio-economic development is based on the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2.

• Scenarios with climate impacts (suffix “CCimp”): Same as the five main scenarios described above, but taking into account climate change impacts in the agricultural system.
• SSP1 scenarios (SSP1-NPi & SSP1-1p5C): Socio-economic development and energy and food demand projections are based on the optimistic Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1.

• World
• Selected countries/regions resolved by models: China, EU27 & UK, India, Japan, USA
• R5 & R10: common regional aggregation to 5 or 10 world regions used by the IPCC
• For further information on the common regional aggregation, please refer to this documentation